“Foreign investments create refugees”, states a leader of one of the many ethnic minorities in Burma, recently in DVB Debate. Many people around the globe know Burma is ‘opening up’, but may not realize it is not free yet. The slow transitional process is complex and for many painful. There is even a chance the changes are reversible; Burma could close again.

The more I learn, the more I realize how little I know. So many vital parts of the societal structure are under construction, it is hard to keep track of the progress; education, defense, healthcare, economy, democracy ... you name it.

For now it seems after two years of transition, only the ruling class (ministers, generals, CEO’s) benefits from the lifted sanctions, nobody else. For many it got even worse: common goods become more expensive, real estate prizes sky rocket and the ones that happen to live on top of gold or gemstone rich soil, are kicked off by the army. Thanks to new big foreign investors that are allowed to invest in companies, owned by (former) generals. In combination with a non-functioning legal system and continues restriction of societal pressure groups, nobody can stop new refugees continue to be created.

Burma still has the longest running civil war in the world: in a dozen border areas, ethnic armies are fighting the state army. The current government committed itself to reach a national cease fire before the next elections in 2015. This peace process seems actually pretty successful, with several cease fire agreements being signed, but that is just paper. In reality lots of fighting continues after the signatures by rebel leaders and generals. Local farmers in border areas complain that groups of state and rebel soldiers still force them to pay illegal taxes.

It seems to me the whole transition process is benefiting the rich while the poor are suffering. Maybe these are inevitable problems on the short term that come with such drastic changes. They may benefit from the new opening up of the economy and political system on the long term, but a majority of the people of Myanmar must now feel lost in the transition process.

To watch the debate about the peace process click here.